ASML’s disappointing leaked results and guidance sent the sector into a tailspin. But is the bad news a harbinger of downcycling or an opportunity?
Shares of memory leader Micron (MU -3.71%), Applied Materials (AMAT -10.69%), and KLA Corporation (KLAC -14.70%) plunged on Tuesday, down 4.3%, 10.9%, and 15.5%, respectively, as of 3:28 p.m. ET.
Semiconductor stocks largely sold off across the board today after equipment leader ASML Holdings (ASML -16.26%) accidentally leaked its third-quarter results and outlook, which were supposed to be published tomorrow.
The results and guidance were highly disappointing, sending fears across the sector.
ASML disappoints on a “slower than expected” recovery
In the leaked press release, ASML showed 11.2% revenue growth and 9.1% earnings-per-share (EPS) growth, which aren’t terrible growth figures by any means, with the top line exceeding the company’s guidance last quarter.
However, the bookings figure and outlook for 2025, also contained in the press release, were more worrisome. Net bookings, which reflect revenue plus or minus the change in orders in backlog, were only 2.6 billion euros (~$2.8 billion), far below expectations of 5.39 billion euros (~$5.87 billion).
Moreover, management gave preliminary revenue guidance for 2025 of between 30 billion and 35 billion euros (~$33 billion to $38 billion). While that still portends mid-teens growth above expected 2024 figures of 28 billion euros (~$30 billion), it was below the 36.3 billion euros (~$39.5 billion) analysts were expecting.
Management noted in the press release:
While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover. It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness.
ASML is likely referring to Intel, which has seen lower near-term demand, and Samsung, which has been beset by operational issues and is pushing out its fab expansions. ASML management also noted limited capacity additions for DRAM memory suppliers, as most are converting unused equipment for non-artificial intelligence (AI) memory to production lines for HBM and DDR-5 for AI.
The semiconductor capital equipment sector is very linked. So, if a large fab is pushed out, not only will ASML see slower growth, but so will the etch and deposition equipment supplied by Applied Materials and the metrology and inspection equipment provided by KLA Corporation along with it. Thus, it’s no surprise to see each of those stocks sell off to ASML today by a similar amount.
Micron is also down, given that ASML indicated softer end-demand across non-AI markets. However, it may also be positive for Micron that memory rivals are scaling back their investments in memory capacity. Unlike that of advanced logic chips, memory pricing can fluctuate a lot based on supply and demand. So, the discipline to pull back investments could be a good thing for memory pricing. That’s likely why Micron’s stock is holding up better than the others.
The sell-off may be a good opportunity
This sell-off may be an opportunity for chip investors since the recovery in non-AI markets is very likely to happen at some point, even if a full recovery doesn’t happen as fast as some forecast. After all, the midpoint of ASML’s guidance still points to 16% growth next year. And pushing fab buildouts from 2025 to 2026 should entail more sustained growth beyond 2025.
It seems that 2024 corporate budgets may have been dominated by expensive AI spending, crowding out refreshes of non-AI servers and PCs. However, this aging equipment will have to be refreshed eventually, especially since Windows 10 support will be phased out in October 2025. Furthermore, as more AI-enabled devices come to market, that should be a boon for chip content across all devices in PCs, smartphones, and auto markets that are still lagging today.
So, for those investors with a long-term view, this sell-off based on the medium-term outlook may be an opportunity to pick up high-quality semiconductor names, such as these three, for the long haul.
Billy Duberstein and/or his clients have positions in ASML, Applied Materials, Intel, KLA, and Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML and Applied Materials. The Motley Fool recommends Intel and recommends the following options: short November 2024 $24 calls on Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
