Can Shiba Inu Reach $0.01?

Shiba Inu (SHIB 4.16%) was once one of the hottest investments anyone could have made. The speculative cryptocurrency skyrocketed from $0.0000000001194 to $0.00008845 in the first 10 months of 2021. That translates to a jaw-dropping 74,000,000% return. Good luck finding a better-performing asset.

As excitement has cooled dramatically, this dog-themed token currently trades 79% off its peak price. But can it rise 538-fold to one day each $0.01? Let’s take a closer look at Shiba Inu.

It’s hard to be bullish

Shiba Inu was created to have more functionality than its inspiration, Dogecoin. So, it was made to be compatible with Ethereum, which makes it useful when it comes to a vast array of decentralized applications.

However, Shiba Inu lacks any meaningful competitive strengths that support long-term viability. It hasn’t made much progress as a payment mechanism, as tokens are only useful at 991 merchants worldwide. That’s nothing to write home about.

There have been notable updates to the network that have happened in an effort to make it more interesting for users and developers. Shibarium is a layer-2 solution to make transactions faster and cheaper. There are also plans to launch a metaverse for people to buy virtual land. For what it’s worth, there’s also a layer-3 upgrade in the works to improve privacy.

I view these developments as mostly just being fun projects for Shiba Inu’s tiny developer community to work on. Consequently, they haven’t done much to boost adoption of the token. I don’t have much confidence that they will bring on more users or developers going forward.

Running the numbers

Let’s put on our bullish caps for a moment. What if Shiba Inu does get to $0.01 one day? This would translate to a tremendous gain of 53,700% from the current price. And that price would blow the previous peak, which was established in October 2021, out of the water.

There are currently just under 590 trillion Shiba Inu tokens in circulation. At the one-penny mark, this implies a gargantuan market capitalization of roughly $5.9 trillion. It’s important to put this huge figure into context.

That market cap is larger than some of the world’s most dominant enterprises, a list that includes Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Tesla, for example. Shiba Inu’s hypothetical value would also be greater than all but two of biggest economies out there, the U.S. and China.

Even in 10 or 20 years’ time, can a rational investor really believe that a useless dog-themed cryptocurrency can be worth more than each of the “Magnificent Seven” constituents? Those businesses all sell in-demand products and services, and they benefit from powerful technological trends that are having a profound impact on society and the economy. With this framework in mind, it’s easy to be very bearish on Shiba Inu’s long-term prospects.

There is, however, one activity that can counteract the large token supply. And that’s something called coin burning. In the last 24 hours, 3 million tokens were burned. A lower supply is one way to try and artificially boost the price.

At this pace, though, it would take over 900 years for just 1 trillion tokens to be burned. That will hardly make a dent.

At the end of the day, it’s clear that Shiba Inu’s price is still driven by hype cycles and speculative behavior, which are impossible to predict. Even worse, excitement can be short-lived. And investment sentiment can quickly shift from hot to cold.

I think there is no chance Shiba Inu gets to $0.01. Investors should avoid this crypto like the plague.