Several artificial intelligence (AI) chip stocks are seeing broad sell-offs in Monday’s trading. Nvidia (NVDA -3.09%), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM -3.95%), and Micron (MU -4.84%) are among the big names participating in the pullback and were down 2.4%, 3.4%, and 4.8%, respectively, as of 12:45 p.m. ET.
Semiconductor stocks are getting hit with a wave of bearish pressures following news that the U.S. will take new steps to limit the export of advanced chips used for AI. Nvidia, Micron, and TSMC occupy important positions in the AI chip space, and each company is seeing a significant valuation pullback today.
Nvidia, Micron, and TSMC fall on expanded AI chip regulations
Before the market opened this morning, U.S. officials announced they would be implementing new regulations that will put additional restrictions on the export of AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. The move is aimed at maintaining technological advantages for the U.S. and its allies and limiting AI progress for China and other adversarial countries.
The new regulations will put a hard cap on the number of AI chips that can be exported to countries including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Meanwhile, close U.S. allies will have unrestricted access to advanced semiconductors and manufacturing equipment for artificial intelligence technologies. The new regulations will take effect 120 days after their initial publication.
Given the news, it’s not surprising that Nvidia, Micron, and TSMC are seeing sell-offs today. While each company operates in a different corner of the semiconductor industry, they’re all playing an important role in the design and production of advanced processors that are at the foundations of the AI revolution.
Nvidia is the leading designer of high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) for AI data centers. While there are other players in the space, the company has a dominant technology and market share lead and stands as the most influential hardware designer in the space. Restrictions were already in place that prevented the company’s most advanced processors from being shipped to China, and the new regulations look poised to expand the breadth of the export limitations.
Meanwhile, Micron is a leading producer of memory solutions. The company’s high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips are included in some of Nvidia’s most advanced processors, and other memory and storage solutions from the tech specialist are also being used in AI data centers.
Compared to Nvidia and TSMC, Micron could wind up seeing less direct impacts from the new regulations. But while it’s possible that the company’s memory chips won’t be specifically included in the expanding ban list, the business could still wind up facing a tougher growth environment because its chips are included as components in processors from Nvidia and other AI leaders.
TSMC’s position amid rising tensions between the U.S. and China could be particularly fraught. TSMC dominates the market when it comes to the manufacturing of advanced AI chips. While there are many companies that design their own semiconductors, very few have the capacity to fabricate their own chips.
Because TSMC offers technological performance and reliability advantages, most AI chip designers choose the company to manufacture their chips. As a Taiwan-based company, TSMC has close geographical proximity to China and has become a centerpiece in the country’s increasingly adversarial relationship with the U.S.
What does the U.S.-China dynamic mean for Nvidia, Micron, and TSMC?
Geopolitical dynamics are perhaps the single most important risk factor for AI chip investors. While near-term demand in the space continues to look robust and the long-term growth outlook remains very strong, rising tensions between the U.S. and China could create substantial valuation pressures. Along those lines, developments concerning Taiwan and TSMC are particularly important.
China has long held that Taiwan is part of its territory — a position that the government of the relatively small island nation disagrees with. With TSMC the world’s leading manufacturer of high-performance AI chips, the dispute has taken on added significance.
Leadership in AI has emerged as a key national security and economic issue, and TSMC’s dominance when it comes to advanced chip fabrication means that it is one of the world’s most important companies. If China were to move to exert greater control over Taiwan and TSMC’s chip fabrication plants, it would likely create powerful bearish pressures on AI chip stocks and the market at large. While it’s not clear that such a scenario will necessarily play out, geopolitical risks are a key factor that could shape the performance of some of the market’s hottest artificial intelligence stocks.
Keith Noonan has positions in Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
